A decade following the UK entered into a hurried public vote that divided the nation and caused chaos, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate
The team have studied the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue such a time is approaching, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unification has hidden the lack of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in universities but scarcely any politicians or activists seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer supports unity or the existing arrangement. Both authors two articles that aim for objectivity in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the argument against, gathering financial and social statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.
Debates encompass identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they support unification but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his era is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a negligent government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, valid perspectives, he said. "One side will prevail in this matter and somebody will ultimately not succeed but each side has got something to learn from the alternative arguments."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster must join the dialogue, said the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
