Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the crisis sparked by the presentation of a new 28-article proposal for resolving the conflict appeared – momentarily – to have been defused. A American diplomat spoke of "substantial progress" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its response: an extensive attack of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Negotiation and Warfare
The succession of conflicting incidents captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, negotiation efforts are conducted: optimistic declarations are issued from different nations. Significant resources is allocated on restraining particular approaches. By night, Russian leadership forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the primary tool for achieving "resolution".
After-Dark Attacks
As Russia's attack progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was exposed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor projectile deployments from Russian territory, a ability afforded by up-to-date information. From observation points, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been dispatched to counter approaching aerial threats roared overhead – sophisticated military planes delivered to Ukraine by Western partners.
Moments later, Kyiv's missile defense thundered: several firings fired to intercept a hostile projectile. This was a modern interception technology at work, presumably provided by Western nations. Every launch shakes the surroundings, rattling buildings. The moment of terror quickly becomes grim resignation: maybe the hostile projectile won't hit its mark this time, protecting urban areas from catastrophe and additional electricity failures.
Persistent Threats
Following this, a large-caliber weapon engaged a drone in the vicinity, part of a defensive team – almost certainly Western-made equipment. Unfortunately, the projectiles didn't strike the enemy aircraft – it continued its flight toward its target.
Periodically, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv faced the daybreak reports: seven people killed, destruction and utility failures in many homes as a result of the evening attack. As always, everyone still maintained normal activities – experiencing conflict. But those entire period encapsulated Ukraine's essential dependence on international aid – a dependence that European nations are demonstrably unable to replace in the near term.
Failed Diplomacy
The comprehensive proposal from American leadership generated strong feelings, debate and serious worry – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after earlier high-level meetings and multilateral gatherings.
Every new approach from US leadership follows the consistent cycle: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, manages to fend off. They stabilise the situation but never actually win the battle. This pattern will, undoubtedly, persist.
Tactical Assessments
It is convenient to criticize specific actors of consistently pushing Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. Washington operates on a premise well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have failed to defend militarily. The US administration presumes that it is unrealistic to pressure the Kremlin to abandon the areas that it presently holds in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The issue is that while recognising this factual reality, American administration does nothing to discourage Russia, through statements or actions, from assuming that the situation will not evolve additionally in its benefit in the coming year.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Moscow is convinced that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its partners are coming close to fatigue. Their incentive to agree to terms that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is virtually nonexistent. There may be numerous efforts to achieve ceasefire, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leadership remains completely certain in the result.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still persist, gradually sacrificing people and territory but avoiding a complete military breakdown until circumstances change in its favour.
Current Realities
Realistically, there are no genuine requirements for a armistice. Now, subjective factors are coming into play: personal goals to negotiate peace and secure international recognition, and the government's double obstacles – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the flag against any proposal Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their attention does not switch to internal issues. And although their objective will now be much harder after current events, it remains quite doubtful that this will modify their basic position.
These two forces are driving the talks.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a only one week to eliminate the 28 points of the current initiative. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by American leadership, resistance by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with calming attempts of representatives, and finally, recent disclosures, all did their job.
While new plans based on previous concepts are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off political attacks from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and show certain reluctance to alter the situation, if they remain united and strengthen their defence capabilities at a much faster pace. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the coming months, largely rely on sustained allied backing.
